On Wednesday, political analyst Mark Halperin dropped some incredibly bad news for the Democrats. According to Halperin, new private polling shows that Kamala Harris is in an extremely dangerous position in critical battleground states.
If the polling data Halperin discusses holds, Harris may be facing an extremely steep uphill battle to secure the electoral votes she needs to win.
Halperin’s key point is that Harris’s path to victory is narrow and increasingly threatened. “What I’m telling you is happening in private polling is she’s got a problem now,” Halperin explained in a live stream on 2WAY, making it clear that this isn’t just about national polls because there is state-level data that could decide the election.
As we know, nationally, Harris is up by two points—within the margin of error. As Halperin points out, “We all know that three is like the bubble point. If she’s up three, she’s got a chance to win the electoral college, but they’d rather be at four, and they don’t wanna be at two.”
The real issue for Kamala lies in the Rust Belt.
Halperin drew attention to a Wall Street Journal story about Democrat worries over key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. “We all know from our contacts in both campaigns that Pennsylvania is tough for her right now. And without Pennsylvania, there are paths, but there aren’t many. There’s no path without Wisconsin.”
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The private polling suggests that Harris is, in fact, down in Wisconsin. Halperin pointed to internals from Tammy Baldwin’s Senate campaign that show her trailing by three points—a critical gap in a state that could make or break her campaign.
The bad news (for Kamala, not the country) doesn’t stop there. Halperin also pointed to broader trends in Michigan and Wisconsin, where the polls have been trending toward Trump. Democrat Senate candidates in these states also see tightening races, further complicating Harris’s prospects.
One of the more revealing moments is when Halperin asks, “Why is the Baldwin campaign sharing its polling with the Wall Street Journal?” His rhetorical question signals that Democrats are sounding the alarm. Halperin and his guests explained that campaigns don’t usually broadcast bad polling unless they’re desperate for more visits and support from national figures.
Halperin then directly spoke to Harris supporters who were watching the stream.
“For you Harris people on here complaining that we're talking about problems […] in the Harris campaign, you're welcome to put your head in the sand about it. If you wanna go watch MSNBC primetime and hear how great things are going for the Harris campaign, you're welcome to do that,” he said. “But if you wanna understand what's actually happening, we're here to tell you, I just saw some new private polling today that's very robust private polling.”
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“She's in a lot of trouble,” Halperin continued. “Here's how I framed it this morning in my newsletter. The conversation I'm having with Trump people and Democrats with data are extremely bullish on Trump's chances in the last 48 hours. Extremely bullish. You think of the seven battleground states; which ones are Harris in danger of losing? I would say Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia."
He continued, "I'm not saying she'll lose all six, but she's in danger."
"I just saw some new private polling that's very robust. Private polling," says @MarkHalperin. Kamala Harris "is in a lot of trouble … In the conversations I'm having with Trump people and Democrats with data, they are extremely bullish on Trump's chances in the last 48 hours.… pic.twitter.com/KF3tSM2sLo
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 9, 2024
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